CFB: USC at Arizona (10:15 PM ET, ESPN)

Click here to read latest College Football news

2008-10-24

USC has quietly crept back into the national title picture after falling hard following the loss at Oregon State. On Saturday, the Trojans face another tough Pac 10 road test, at Arizona. The Wildcats are building confidence each and every week and hope to surpise USC as a 16-point home dog. Still, 79% of bettors don’t like their chances to even beat the Vegas number.

Most experts acknowledge the Pac-10 is not up to usual standards, which could be fine for USC. Instead of being in the headlines all the time, the Trojans can be a regional story on the college football landscape, staying under the radar and sneak up on the pack. This might be the best way for USC (5-1 SU & ATS) to get back to into BCS discussions, let the other beat themselves up and go unbeaten the rest of the season and take their chances with 11-1 record.

This year’s USC model has misfired on several occasions. The Trojans have forced 16 turnovers and have given the ball away a dozen times. They are the most penalized team in the Pac-10 at eight per game, with personal foul penalties no longer acceptable when they happen game after game. “We’ve got ball issues, we’ve got penalty issues, we’ve got some situations that we got to take care of,” head coach Pete Carroll said. Mauling Washington State 69-0 meant little for USC who is 2-6 ATS in the second of two straight road games.

There might not be a more screwed up team in the country than Arizona. Having not played in a bowl game in a decade, certain Wildcat players admitted they might have been “too comfortable” believing they should have won at New Mexico and Stanford. Instead they lost both and after California upset, stand at 5-2 (5-2 ATS). Since when does the sight of a blue helmet with an “A” strike fear in opponents? Nevertheless, Arizona was impressive against Cal, outscoring then 28-3 in the second half on the way to the victory. Beating Arizona is like the old football axiom, “Run the ball, stop the run”. In Arizona’s losses they gained 72 yards rushing and allowed 253 yards.

The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in last eight Pac-10 tilts and 6-0 against the spread at home. The home team is 3-7 ATS in the series, though Arizona is 7-1-1 ATS as home underdog the last four years and has covered three in a row versus USC. The Trojans mindset will determine the outcome.

StatFox Forecaster –USC covers
StatFox Power Line – USC by 17
SF Outplay Factor – USC by 16