CFB: St. Petersburg Bowl; UCF vs. RUTGERS (8:00 PM ET, ESPN)
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2009-12-18
The second annual St. Petersburg Bowl game from the Tropicana Dome is a battle of Knights, UCF’s Knights vs. the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Rutgers, out of the Big East, is a 2.5-point favorite for this second of 34-bowl games, according to Sportsbook.com. UCF comes out of Conference USA, and most bettors, 86% of them, think the conference strength difference will be what decides this game.
The Golden Knights of UCF were one of the country’s most effective teams against the pointspread this season, going 9-2. They’ll come into this game having rather quietly won five of their L6 games outright as well. Still, they are a slight underdog to a Rutgers team that finished 8-4 in 2009 out of the Big East. The bowl histories of these teams are very different, as UCF is seeking its first ever bowl-game win, and is playing in just its third postseason contest. The Scarlet Knights have won three straight bowl games, all as favorites. They boast a 24-12 ATS record in non-conference games under head coach Greg Schiano.
These two teams will be facing off in sunny Florida, yet playing indoors gives no real home-field advantage to UCF. In my opinion the teams come in with pretty much the same seasons behind them as far as stats go. The deciding factor in this game will be conference strength and a price that doesn’t reflect it. Rutgers has forced a ton of turnovers this year so look for the Scarlet Knight to do so once again here. The StatFox Power Rating line indicates Rutgers should be a seven-point favorite. Take advantage of that and watch the chalk jump to an early lead and win by nine or more.
Top StatFox ATS Trend
George O'Leary is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was O'Leary 25.5, OPPONENT 32.1 - (Rating = 2*)
Top StatFox Total Super Situation
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (UCF) - in a game involving two average passing teams (6.4-7.5 PYA), in non-conference games. (40-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.9%, +26.8 units. Rating = 3*)
ST PETERSBURG BOWL Series Trend: Last year’s St. Petersburg Bowl game was the first college bowl game hosted at “The Trop”, better known as the home of baseball’s Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa-based South Florida was an unofficial “host” for that game, and didn’t show Memphis much hospitality, routing the Tigers 41-14 as a 10.5-point favorite. UCF would have a “regional” advantage, but Rutgers is still the favorite.