CFB: Oklahoma vs. Texas (12:00 PM ET, ABC)
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2009-10-16
For this Saturday on the collegiate gridiron, longstanding rivalries top the schedule, none bigger than the Red River Rivalry, with the winner again taking command of the Big 12 South. Oklahoma & Texas meet once again in the Cotton Bowl. The Longhorns are the favorite, but by only 3-points, and bettors think that isn’t enough, as 80% of them at Sportsbook.com have been willing to lay the points at last check.
For Oklahoma (3-2, 2-3 ATS), it has been a tough go in 2009. Having to play without its Heisman Trophy quarterback for most of the season, potential All-American tight end and recently losing its best receiver. Despite having more problems than David Letterman, the Sooners still control their own destiny with a win over archrival Texas. Like most coaches, Bob Stoops doesn’t worry about whose not there, instead trying to get the most out of who is. Sam Bradford played last week in Baylor bounce back win 33-7 and is having to go without TE Jermaine Gresham for the season and WR Ryan Broyles is questionable. Another factor in this equation is a defense lacking in big stops. In spite of nine starters returning and No.9 ranking, the Oklahoma defense did not made an important shutdown in their losses to BYU or Miami. The Sooners are 1-3 in last four meetings vs. Texas and haven’t covered since 2004.
As Texas (5-0, 1-4 ATS) found out last season, beating Oklahoma isn’t enough and they have to keep focused with road games at Missouri and Oklahoma State up next. Colt McCoy hasn’t been quite the quarterback he was a season ago, but is still having a very good 2009 campaign. He’s been helped by a running back by committee this season, as coach Mack Brown has gone with the hot hand and kept feeding the ball to that back. What might make the difference for the Longhorns this season is the defense (No.4 overall). The defensive line was hit by graduation, nonetheless defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has pleaded with his team about the importance of seizing the momentum with key stops and turnovers and its paid dividends. Texas is 5-12 ATS vs. ranked teams on neutral fields.
The underdog is 14-7 ATS since 1988 in Red River Rivalry’s, with the margin of victory 10 or more points in 10 of last 11 battles. The Longhorns are 6-18 ATS away from home after five or more consecutive straight up wins. The Sooners are 8-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last two seasons. Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS as road underdog under coach Stoops. Is there upset in the making?
StatFox Steve doesn’t think so, offering this advice: There are some lines that come out each week where I believe it is just flat wrong on first glance. A lot of times I trick myself by overanalyzing it. For this Texas-Oklahoma game, I’m not going to do that. The truth is that Texas is a better team than Oklahoma and has proven it on the field this season, with or without Sam Bradford having played. The past game lines of the teams say it all. The Longhorns have played as an average favorite of -32.9 to a schedule strength of 33. Oklahoma has played as an average favorite of -25.5 to only a slightly better schedule. Oddsmakers have held Texas in higher regard this season all the way up to this point, and it’s simply due to the return of Bradford. Don’t get trapped, Texas came back as the more loaded team up front, and that’s where this game will be decided. Plus, it seems as if teas has been awaiting this game from day one: Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEXAS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season. (47-18 since 1992.) (72.3%, +27.2 units. Rating = 3*) Play: Texas -3