CFB – Looking ahead thru the rearview mirror
Click here to read latest College Football news
2007-10-09
This past weekend brought another wave of upsets in college football and a few other near misses. It’s certainly been a topsy-turvy season thus far. Here’s a quick look at some of the things that happened in Week 6.
Les Miles, the next Brett Maverick
Whether you remember the old TV show or the movie Mel Gibson made with Jodie Foster about the fictional riverboat gambler Brett Maverick, LSU head coach Les Miles is turning into quite gambler himself. The Tigers head coach has opened his mouth and taken more chances in different situations than Phil Hellmuth. Before the season he called the Pac-10 overrated and questioned how good USC really was playing out west compared to the SEC. Miles had started to build a little something at Oklahoma State before moving to Baton Rouge and is making himself known as a commodity, not just in the league but nationally. The fake field goal against South Carolina that resulted in a touchdown even brought a small smile to the face of another noted risk taker in Steve Spurrier. In the game against Florida, Miles team was outplayed at various points and was no better than even for most of this year’s best contest to date. Still with the game on the line, trailing 24-21, and 4th and 1 with just over two minutes left in the game, Miles made his fifth and final critical decision (the previous four he nailed) in eschewing the tying field goal and went for the win without blinking. The Tigers responded and went on to defeat the Gators. After playing at Kentucky, LSU hosts Auburn and travels to Alabama where the visitor is 9-1 ATS. If they survive this trio, the last three games the Tigers will be decided favorites (not sure what that means this year) and would go into SEC Title game unbeaten and might well be the last team with perfect record. Miles has the look of a confident politician, already knowing the outcome. Continuing the Tigers march might well make folks in Baton Rouge say “Saban Who?”
Zookers and Fighting Fulmer’s
Rece Davis deserves the praise for coming up with names, with the recent play of each earning its own special place. Ron Zook’s diligence in recruiting at Illinois, considered a dead end job by many, has the Fighting Illini right in the thick of Big Ten contention. Zook has worked in-state Chicago like nobody since coach Mike White, who took Illinois to the Rose Bowl more then 20 years ago. Not noted for X’s and O’s, Zook has shown he understands that being dominant on both sides of the line of scrimmage and having playmakers in the right positions can take you from nowhere to pretty elite status in a hurry. With Michigan on the third Saturday of October and the final road game at Ohio State, the worst it looks like the Illini should do is third in the conference. With this being 2007, who knows what else might happen.
Phillip Fulmer is in his 15th season at Knoxville, has a National Championship ring and is treated with less respect than the departed Rodney Dangerfield. Fulmer raised the bar in this conference when he came in and continues to produce quality teams, though not every one national championship material the nutty Knoxville natives expect. After doing serious damage to Georgia’s Mark Richt street cred as a visitor, wasting them comfortably 35-14 as one point home dogs, the Volunteers are in complete command of there destiny in SEC East. The other current one loss teams in the division are South Carolina and Kentucky who are on the Tennessee schedule. The Vols can put up points with senior quarterback Erik Ainge in command and if defensive coordinator John Chavis can muster enough defense from physical, yet slow afoot group, a date with LSU in SEC title game might be in the Fighting Fulmer’s future.
For USC, betting does matter
As many in Congress and the Senate have tried to explain the social ills of gambling, (state lotteries are good because every benefits, honest) more and more the accepted use of point spreads into the television and print media is becoming second nature. Much like sexual innuendos are commonplace on network television, almost every announcer references a point spread as a measuring stick to determine the value of how either team is playing in a broadcasted encounter. When USC lost to Stanford as around 40-point favorites, this rightfully became the greatest upset of all-time. The point spread is what substantiated it with the other factors of Stanford playing back-up quarterback and receiver who caught touchdown just driving home the point. Looking ahead the Trojans are given little opportunity to fight back and earn a spot in national championship game. Other than LSU and maybe Ohio State, nobody is convinced the rest of the unbeaten squads will survive. Thus if Pete Carroll’s Trojans beat Cal, Oregon and UCLA and have only one loss and the others have fallen by the wayside, why wouldn’t they have earned consideration to play for another national championship? Because they just didn’t lose, they lost to a team in which they were a 40-point favorite. Rightly or wrongly, as of today that is unforgivable. Thus for those saying gambling in the root of all evil, in today’s world, point spreads play a valuable part not only for those setting odds and placing wagers, but also the public perception of how teams are viewed.
Tasty Tidbits in CFB – Teams that won as a road underdog are 14-8 63.6 percent if they play the very next week....Teams that committed five or more turnovers have been coached up and are 16-8 ATS if they also are also playing the following week....So far this season on the college gridiron, it is worth following teams off three straight spread losses, garnering a 13-4, 76.4 percent mark if they don’t have a bye week after losing....Here is a sharp system to watch for the rest of the season. It only averages about three plays a season, yet is a fantastic winner. Play On any road team off a close loss by seven points or less to a conference rival against home opponent off a blowout loss by 35 points or more to a conference team. This desirable situation is 25-3, 89.3 percent over the last decade. Rutgers comes up as a play this week at Syracuse.