CFB - Fresno State at Hawaii (11:05 PM ET – FSN)

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2007-11-09

Hawaii is 8-0 in 2007, but has beaten not a single team of significance. In fact, this Saturday’s home game vs. Fresno State is its first against a team with a winning record.

The Warriors’ last four games will tell a lot about them, as they are the toughest on the slate. The numbers are certainly there for QB Colt Brennan & Co. though, as they are scoring 51.2 PPG and gaining 533 YPG of offense. That on paper makes for a bad matchup for 6-3 Fresno State, since the Bulldogs are just 2-10 ATS in their L12 games vs. teams scoring >34 PPG and 4-16 vs. teams passing for 8.5 or more yards per attempt. Despite being 3-1 ATS, FSU has yielded 41.0 PPG in four road games.

Hawaii stands at the door of unparalleled success at 8-0 with four games to go. The schedule has had a Charmin-like quality to it, however now it becomes engaging, taking on the best three remaining WAC teams and a Pac-10 club. The Warriors (loved the name Rainbow Warriors much better) offense has not missed a beat even with Colt Brennan battling a bum ankle and missing games. June Jones club has survived close contests at Louisiana Tech and San Jose State and now faces the always physical Fresno State squad.

Pat Hill’s team probably won’t win the WAC after losing to Boise State; nevertheless they could be national news if they derail unbeaten Hawaii. Fresno State has a lousy run defense, which can masked against Hawaii’s pass offense. The Bulldogs offense is at its best when it running the ball, which presently has them at nearly 200 YPG. As Louisiana Tech proved, you can at least contain the Warriors offense by running the ball which they did for 222 yards.

Key Trend – The home team is 11-4 and 10-5 ATS in what have been many fierce battles.

Hawaii has covered six of the last seven contests between these clubs and is 5-1 ATS when Fresno State visits the Islands. Prediction – Hawaii by 17