CFB: Can Ball State Cover Big Number for MAC Title? (8:00 PM ET, ESPN2)

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2008-12-05

During the first press conference Brady Hoke conducted after being hired to coach Ball State, he was very clear about the goal for his alma mater. His expectation was to compete for the Mid-American Conference championship. Though the journey has not been easy, the Cardinals accomplished one part of the goal in making the MAC title game, now it is about finishing the process and going down as the best team in school history at 13-0 and one of the best ever in the conference. Coach Hoke made a subtle yet effective change, utilizing the run more as the season progressed, faced with the prospect of inclement and windy weather. The brilliant aspect of this decision was the offense was no less efficient and quarterback Nate Davis ended up with receivers that were even more open. Playing in the much more difficult MAC West, Ball State is 14-3 ATS off one or more straight Overs.

Buffalo expected to be improved in their third season under Turner Gill, with 18 returning starters. A 2-4 start left Bulls backers wondering if this team was ready to win, having never finished .500 or above since joining Division-1 football in 1999. A determined Gill, bred in the success of Nebraska football took what most considered a dead-end job in 2006 and three short years later, he has Buffalo in the MAC title tilt as East Division champs. Their strength has been a consistent offense that broke the school record for points scored, passing the ball well and running effectively. Quarterback Drew Willy leads an offense that has scored in 42 of 49 quarters. The Bulls are 10-2 ATS away from home against conference opponents over the last three seasons.

It’s time for a little history lesson and why this is such an important game for both teams. This is Buffalo’s first winning season in football on any level since Tricky Dick Nixon was in his first year as president (1969). Prior to last season, when Ball State posted a winning record, David Letterman used to joke, “I didn’t go to college, I went to Ball State.” His alma mater was easy fodder when the late night talk show host so choose, going 11 years between winning seasons, with 1998-99 being the lowest point, winning one game in two seasons.

Sportsbook.com has Ball State as 15-point favorites with a total of 62. The Buffalo defense isn’t going to stop the Cardinals, allowing 400 yards a game on the season. What the Bulls have to hope for is QB Willy starts hotter than a five-alarm hot wings sauce and stays that way for the entire game and the defense gets lucky and finds a few turnovers. Buffalo only has three turnovers in their last six games, thus should have the capability of not beating themselves. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in road games after two consecutive games having committed one or less turnovers.

Even though Ball State is unlikely to receive a BCS invite, they have a chance to say they are every bit as good as Boise State with a convincing blowout. Davis should have no issues moving the ball against the Buffalo defense and needs to be patient, since they have not allowed many big plays in spite of surrendering 27.7 points per game. Buffalo may realistically only be the fourth or fifth best team in the MAC and if Ball State doesn’t take them seriously, weird things can happen. This is Davis’ team, who is 9-2 ATS after scoring 31 points or more two games in a row the couple of seasons.

Ball State is a deserved double digit favorite, yet is only 4-3-1 ATS in this role. The Cardinals have hammered Buffalo a combined 104-39 the previous two seasons, however this is a different Bulls team that is 6-0 ATS as an underdog in 2008.

ESPN2 has the MAC Championship starting at 8 Eastern.

StatFox Forecaster – Ball State covers
StatFox Power Line – Ball State by 15
StatFox Outplay Factor – Ball State by 7