CFB: California at USC (8:00 PM ET, ABC)

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2008-11-10

At the outset of the week, USC opened up as a 17-1/2 point favorite for its Saturday matchup with California. Apparently since then, bettors have recognized the fact that USC is on a record-pace defensively in 2008, and have backed the Trojans in droves. At least it would seem that way, as the line has since moved to USC -22.5.

Remember in the preseason, when USC was supposed to have one of the best defenses not only in the country, but over the last several years. After being pushed around and looking less than imposing against Oregon State, trailing 21-0 at halftime, take a gander what the Trojans defense has done. In their last five games, they have allowed 20 total points. In taking into account the big picture about coach Pete Carroll’s defense, delete the first 30 minutes against the Beavers and Southern Cal has given up 36 points in 30 quarters, which means opposing teams are scoring just over four points per game. Though the offense has been spotty on different occasions, it has been quite good playing at the L.A. Memorial Coliseum. Here the Men of Troy have averaged 40.8 points per game, utilizing all their weaponry. Since Carroll arrived in SoCal, the Trojans are 21-7 ATS the last four games of the regular season.

It would be very interesting for you the reader, if a truly compelling argument could be made on behalf of California to pull the upset in the game. Since tantalizing Cal fans with 10-1 regular season in 2005 and producing 5-0 road record, coach Jeff Tedford’s team has not been any better than the average bear, so to speak. The Bears are 8-11 on the road, including losses at Maryland and Arizona this season and have 6-13 ATS record in those games. For a coach known for mentoring quarterbacks with “his” system, the success rate has tumbled since Aaron Rodgers departed for the NFL. The defense has not played as well in the road white uniforms, though the secondary is a bunch of thieves with 17 interceptions this year.

College football bettors have pounded USC, taking them from 17-point pick to present figure. The Trojans put up imposing numbers like being 8-0 ATS in November contests and 14-3 ATS in home games after a win by 28 or more points. Cal doesn’t help their own cause much being 0-6 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

California has managed to hang with USC for awhile the last four years; nonetheless, each has ended in defeat. The Bears have not covered the number in the last three seasons, but the road team is 9-3 ATS in last 12 meetings.

StatFox Forecaster – USC covers
StatFox Power Line – USC by 27
Outplay Factor – USC by 21