CFB: Boise State Big Home Favorites over Hawaii
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2008-10-20
Last season Hawaii ended Boise State’s run of five straight Western Athletic Conference titles with a 39-27 win at home and went on have an undefeated regular season. The Broncos will trot out the R-word, hoping to have a luau after the game at the expense of Hawaii.
If you haven’t seen the Warriors (Rainbow Warriors was way cooler nickname) play this season, you will be shocked, as they are just like everybody else. With June Jones stuffing his pockets with Texas oil money, he’s playing with the ponies at SMU. Hawaii has a quarterback named Inoke Funaki, who has helped them win two straight. The junior passed for two touchdowns and ran for 79 yards in a 32-29 victory over then-No. 22 Fresno State, and threw two more TD’s in a 26-14 victory over Louisiana Tech last week.
“I think Inoke Funaki is outstanding,” Warriors coach Greg McMackin said. “He brings so much to the table. He creates so many problems because he’s so mobile.” McMackin went on to offer, “He’s starting to realize that he’s got something special and he can take it to a higher level, he’s going to get better and better.”
Funaki is going to need to be much better, taking on Boise State on the road. This Broncos team is different from most models seen this decade. The offense is still solid, averaging 33.6 points per game.
However, it is not of the prolific caliber of the past, averaging 432 yards a game against teams that have allowed 416. What makes this squad different is the defense. Coach Chris Peterson’s crew is eighth in the country in points allowed at 11.2 per game.
Last week, Southern Miss was ranked 17th in the country in total offense and scored just seven points, gaining just 278 yards. “They’ve been paying attention,” coach Peterson said of his defense. “They’ve been buying into it whether it is red zone or fourth down. They just seem to turn the dial up and make a play when they need to.” Boise State is 19-6 ATS in home games after a win by 17 or more points.
Boise State is a 24.5-point favorite at Sportsbook.com and if that seems high, consider oddsmakers are fully aware the Broncos are 20-3 ATS as WAC home favorite of 28 or less points. This is normally the time of year Boise State shines with 15-5 ATS record at home in Rocktober (one last classic rock radio reference).
The Broncos will want to clean up the offense after leaving the ball on the ground four times and quarterback Kellen Moore threw an interception. Most of the mistakes we made were just mental things,” Broncos running back Ian Johnson said. “I don’t know if it was the humidity, or the food, but it seems like something got into our head. Those are some of the things that are uncharacteristic of Boise State and we are going to go work on that so those things won’t happen again.” As unbeaten non-BCS teams continue to fall by the wayside, Boise State keeps moving up and they are 37-12 ATS after four or more consecutive straight up wins.
It would appear Hawaii has little chance to win this game, but can cover if they get pressure on Moore, who is a red-shirt freshman. The Warriors boast a talent-laden veteran secondary who has five picks and no touchdown passes allowed the last two weeks. Hawaii is 5-2-1 ATS in October the last two seasons.
Boise State seems well-suited for the moment and should be able to shut down whatever offense Hawaii can generate. It would not be beyond the Broncos to want to make a statement playing with revenge and they are 37-14 ATS as a home favorite since 1998, winning by an average of 30.1 PPG.
ESPN will have this WAC encounter starting at 8 Eastern with Hawaii 5-16 ATS on the road against a team with a winning home record.
StatFox Forecaster – Hawaii covers
StatFox Power Line – Boise State by 17
Outplay Factor – Boise State by 30