CFB: Auburn (-4, 37) at Vanderbilt (6:00E, ESPN)

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2008-10-03

Vanderbilt is 4-0 and excitement is building in Nashville on a weekly basis for their college team. Saturday evening’s game against Auburn figures to be the biggest test of the young campaign for the Commodores and quite possibly the biggest game for the Vandy program in decades. Emotions will run high and over 70% of early bettors side with the visiting Tigers laying 4-points.

Ready or not, Vanderbilt has made first appearance in Top 25 in 24 years. For years, this university has billed itself, and rightfully so, the Harvard of the South for their academic standards. Football, thou important from just being associated with the SEC, is not an end all to be all on the Nashville campus. Having a representative program and a winning record now and again, are all worthy goals. The Commodores have not been to a bowl game since 1982 and were poised to do so last year sitting at 5-3, only to lose last four games of the season. With the fewest number of returning players (9) in the SEC, most believed a return to 3-9 or 4-8 was inevitable. Yet, like the U.S.A. Ryder Cup team, coach Bobby Johnson got the troops to believe and they stand at 4-0 SU and ATS, with three outright underdog upsets.

The circumstances for Vanderbilt could hardly set up any better with Auburn coming to town. The Tigers are off three strenuous conflicts with Miss. State, LSU and Tennessee. At some juncture just being plain pooped has to kick in and despite Vandy’s record, Auburn might not take them as seriously as they should. The Commodores on the other hand, are off a bye week to straighten out a few matters. Vanderbilt will come in 13-2 ATS after a win by six or fewer points nevertheless, will have baggage to check before this encounter. The ‘Dores have lost an unlucky 13 consecutive games to the Tigers and are 2-7 ATS since 1990 against Auburn. As has been mentioned before here, old habits die hard, and even though coach Johnson has brought jubilation to Vandy this season, mentally overcoming long-standing obstacles is a challenge.

The favorite has covered four of last five matchups and the home team has the same record at 4-1 ATS lately. The Tigers are 8-5 ATS as SEC away faves, with Vanderbilt 0-8 ATS after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

Still you can’t overlook the facts; Auburn is 90th in total offense in the country and has yet to grasp the new offense. The Tigers are 0-8 ATS off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite over the last three seasons.

StatFox Forecaster – Auburn covers
StatFox Power Line – Auburn by 5
Outplay Factor – Vanderbilt by 5