CFB: Arkansas at Alabama (3:30 PM ET, CBS)
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2009-09-25
Three teams have established themselves as the top clubs in college football in the early going. Not coincidentally, they are ranked as such in this week’s polls. One of those teams is Alabama, who squares off on Saturday with an Arkansas team that has given them problems in the past. Can the tide avoid looking past the Razorbacks as 17.5-point favorites while over 70% of bettors at Sportsbook.com give Arkansas a good shot at competing?
Coach Bobby Petrino has a more veteran Razorbacks’ team this season in getting ready to play Alabama. Nothing would satisfy Petrino’s ego more than to start knocking off giants like the Crimson Tide. His quarterback is Ryan Mallet, whose has displayed NFL arm strength and the ability to spread the ball around so far. Mallet, the former Michigan starter, will be tested all game long by an Alabama defense that can make QB’s make poor choices. The Hogs head to Tuscaloosa 10-4 ATS as away dogs.
Coach Nick Saban’s defense is like the boss in the office meeting who quietly takes everything in and once he’s seen or heard enough takes control. The first few Crimson Tide opponents have had some success moving the ball in the first part of the game, but like a water faucet, are turned off after showing what they expect to do. On offense, QB Greg McElroy has shown growth weekly, delivering strikes to receivers and improving his leadership of the team. McElroy strength as a thrower is the deep ball and he’ll have numerous opportunities against the Razorbacks secondary. ‘Bama is 7-16-1 ATS as SEC favorites of 10 or more points.
This has been one of those typical SEC series’, when you consider trends. The home team is 5-10 ATS and has failed to cover the last four engagements. The straight up winner is 15-3 ATS all-time when these two universities get together, but has been trending the other way at 1-3 ATS the last four years.
Alabama has won a school record 17 straight SEC openers (8-9 ATS), while the Razorbacks are 4-12 ATS in their first conference road trip. Remember also, the Tide is 0-7 ATS at home after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in three straight games and 17-5 UNDER at their place after three or more consecutive wins.
The StatFox Power Line indicates Alabama by 16. The Sportsbook.com line is a bit higher. Perhaps this is a good spot to follow your fellow bettors and take the underdog.