CFB: Arizona (-3, 53) at UCLA (3:00E, FSN)

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2008-09-19

Pac-10 play starts for Arizona and UCLA in Pasadena, CA, each trying to rebound from disappointing losses last week. Arizona is a 1-point road favorite, but UCLA has been one of the best home underdogs in college football in recent years. Can the Bruins rebound from the 59-0 shellacking at BYU last week to win the conference opener? At last check, 68% of bettors at Sportsbook.com say no.

The Wildcats offense has blossomed in second season under seasoned coach and offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes. Senior signal Willie Tuitama has been on target in completing almost 67 percent of his passes to a variety of receivers. One big improvement giving cause for better results in Tucson is the emergence of running game. Sophomore tailback Nic Grigsby is making a name for himself averaging over a 100 yards rushing a game, showcasing talents that have impressed his coaches. "He has a lot of Reggie Bush in him," Arizona coach Mike Stoops said. "They have the instincts of cutting the ball back and trying to make a play." Tuitama has shown patience in taking what defenses are giving. Arizona has frequently seen five men in the box, forcing Tuitama use short passing game. Standing at 2-1 after being upset by New Mexico 36-28, the ‘Cats are 9-4 ATS in conference road openers.

UCLA returns home after their worst loss since 1929, losing 59-0 at BYU. After being destroyed by Cougars, hard to guess facing a more finesse pass-oriented attack for a second week in a row will actually help the Bruins this week. The UCLA defense has do almost everything better than what they did against BYU, like rush the passer with abandon, to force quick decisions by opposing quarterback and not get discouraged in yielding yards, as long as they don’t turn into points. The Bruins offensive attack will need to probe the Arizona defense; like they did against Tennessee and Norm Chow has to make the right adjustments to go after their weaknesses. Chow has double duty trying to pick opponents apart, while playing to the strengths of his quarterback Kevin Craft. With the Bruins a small home underdog, they are 13-4 ATS when on the receiving end of seven points or less at the Rose Bowl.

UCLA is 16-4-1 ATS at home in Pac-10 lidlifters. The home team has covered the last five meetings (4-1 SU), and the Bruins are 15-3 ATS off a straight up loss. Arizona will have legitimate chance if they take better care of the ball. The Wildcats are 5-1 against the spread after failing to cover.

StatFox Forecaster – UCLA covers
StatFox Power Line – UCLA by 1
Outplay Factor – Arizona by 18