College Football Betting
LSU vs. Auburn, Unbeaten SEC powers square off
2010-10-23
Sportsbook.com’s LSU vs. Auburn Betting Odds: Auburn -6, Total: 51.5
The two remaining SEC unbeaten teams meet Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium. LSU has won four of its games by seven points or less this year. Auburn has also had some close calls, winning three games by exactly three points.
LSU’s unblemished record is puzzling, considering the Tigers have 2.4 turnovers per game and have yet to reach 225 passing yards in any of the seven contests. LSU has been lucky, but it has also been very good on defense, ranking third in the nation with just 242 YPG allowed. The Tigers are sixth against the run (84 YPG) and eighth in passing defense (159 YPG).
LSU has not yet faced a player that is the caliber of Auburn QB Cameron Newton. The Heisman front-runner is averaging 305 YPG of total offense with 13 TD and five INT. Newton’s 124 rushing YPG leads an Auburn team ranked sixth in the nation in rushing offense (284 YPG) and sixth in scoring (40.7 PPG). Newton has led Auburn to a whopping 47.3 PPG average in its last four games.
LSU is 6-3 ATS in its past nine games at Auburn, but these football betting trends found at Sportsbook.com show that the odds are not in Les Miles’ favor on Saturday. Two trends backing Auburn include:
Miles is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry as the coach of LSU. The average score was LSU 27.3, OPPONENT 24.8 - (Rating = 2*).
Miles is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of LSU. The average score was LSU 28.3, OPPONENT 20.2 - (Rating = 2*).
For ‘total’ bettors, this tend points towards the ‘under’:
Play Under - Any team against the total (AUBURN) - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, in October games. (145-80 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.4%, +57 units. Rating = 3*).
Head over to Sportsbook.com for all of your weekend college football betting. While you are there remember to place your selections for this weekend’s $100,000 Perfect Parlay contest.
CFB: Fiesta Bowl - BOISE STATE vs. TCU (8:10 PM ET, FOX)
2010-01-04
Two of this year’s bowl games were rematches of a year ago. For Boise State and TCU, the stakes are much higher this time, as the teams step up from the Poinsettia to Fiesta Bowl. Strangely there’s no Goliath in this battle of two “David’s,” with both teams having crashed the BCS party by going unbeaten. Of course, with pointspreads in play, one team has to play the role of favorite, and that is TCU (-8). That line seems to have done its job, as according to the Sportsbook.com Betting Trends page, action was split down the middle at last check.
The Horned Frogs were dominant on both sides of the ball, and boast the country’s No. 2-ranked defense in yards per play. Boise State did its best work on offense, scoring 44.2 points per game, ranking No. 1 nationally. In terms of bowl success, it’s all TCU, which owns a 5-1 SU and ATS record in its L6. The Broncos are 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS in their L5.
Many of us would like to have seen these non-automatic qualifying teams compete against BCS conference teams, especially since the two met just one year ago with TCU defeating Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl, 17-16. Regardless, the Fiesta Bowl still presents an interesting matchup. The Horned Frogs have a dominating defense, allowing just 12.4 points and 233 yards per game. TCU can also put points on the board, winning by 36.6 points per game and going 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS down the stretch. Nobody has been better on the offensive end this season than the Broncos, however, who average a nation-best 44.2 points per game. Sixty-eight percent of the public is backing Boise State as of press time. I’ll call for a dominant TCU victory as defense wins out. TCU 41, Boise State 24.
Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
TCU is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TCU 37.0, OPPONENT 10.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Under - Any team against the total (BOISE ST) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences. (28-6 since 1992.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 3*)
FIESTA BOWL Series Trend: Five different conferences boast Fiesta Bowl victories over the last five seasons, not a surprising trend considering underdogs are on a 6-2 ATS run in the series. In past Fiesta Bowl games with pointspreads of 5.5-points or more, the underdog has covered seven of nine. This year’s line shows TCU -6.5. In regards to totals, where the posted number closes is a strong indicator of the result, as in games with posted numbers of 5 or higher, the UNDER is 6-2, in games below 51, the OVER is 7-2.
CFB: Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee (7:30E ESPN)
2009-12-31
The highlight game on the day's schedule is the Chick-Fil-A bowl matchup between Virginia Tech and Tennessee. This bowl game is known for ringing in the New Year, and for the last four years, it has been done with upsets by the SEC team. Can the Volunteers make it five in a row as 5.5-point underdogs, or will the Hokies put the win back in the ledger of the ACC? According to 92% of bettors at Sportsbook.com, Tennessee has a good chance of winning against the spread and on the money line.
The Volunteers and Hokies will send off 2009 in the last college football game of the calendar year. Virginia Tech (7-5 ATS) is favored after finishing 9-3, winning its last four games both SU and ATS, conceding just 8.8 PPG. The Hokies haven't been the best bowl team of late, going just 3-5 SU and ATS since 2001. Tennessee (7-5 SU & ATS) shares that same bowl record in its eight games and has gone Under the total in five straight bowl battles, including twice in the old Peach Bowl. The Vols are looking to extend a streak of four straight upset wins by SEC teams in this bowl series.
Why watch and wager - For each of these teams, the goal is the same it's just the method in which they get there is the difference. New coach Lane Kiffin was able to harness Jonathan Crompton from a mistake-prone quarterback into one that make better decisions and cut down interceptions. This was helped by Montario Hardesty who used his senior season to blossom and Crompton had deception on his side with a running game. In spite of alarming defensive injuries, the Vols held together under DC Monte Kiffin and are is 20-8 ATS away from Knoxville playing a team with 75 percent or better win percentage. This is important game for the stature of the ACC and Virginia Tech. The conference has started 1-3 SU as a bowler and Virginia Tech is in search of fifth straight 10-win season. Did you know Virginia Tech's Ryan Williams actually gained more yards rushing and had more touchdowns the Heisman winner Mark Ingram? Neither did anyone else and if he can break the century mark against the Vols, the Hokies should be good. The biggest concern Frank Beamer is lack if pass rush, exposing mediocre secondary. The Hokies are 32-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
The StatFox Power Line shows Virginia Tech by 6. Expect a good game either way.
Betting on the next series of conference clashes
2009-12-04
With one conference head to head challenge in the books, another commences Thursday. This is the opening night for the Big 12-/Pac-10 Hardwood Series, with three games on tap. We’ll focus our attention on the two main contests on ESPN2 to get things started. Get more key wagering information for these games on the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and GAME MATCHUPS pages of Sportsbook.com.
Washington at Texas Tech 7:00ET, ESPN2
Washington (5-0, 1-4 ATS) is one of the co-favorites in the Pac-10, mostly because they have the best balance in the front and backcourt compared to their league foes. Guard Isaiah Thomas brings explosiveness and tremendous speed out of the Washington guard position. The best player for the Huskies is senior Quincy Pondexter, who last season started to live up to hype since arriving in Seattle. He’s become the most dependable scorer for coach Lorenzo Romar. For Washington to match expectations, Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Darnell Gant have to be a factor come game day. The Huskies are 5-16 ATS off three or more consecutive home wins.
Texas Tech (7-0, 1-1 ATS) has devoured a group of crème puffs thus far and will face its first legit team of the season. The Red Raiders are expected to be lackluster in the Big 12 after last year’s 11th place finish. Texas Tech has four starters back for this campaign and wing player Nick Okorie and forward D’walyn Roberts have been the most impressive players to date and underrated point guard John Roberson has added stability. The Red Raiders earlier defeated another Pac-10 club Oregon State 64-60. This is step in class and they are 9-19 ATS after four or more consecutive wins.
Sportsbook.com has Washington as three-point favorites as they prepare to play first road game of the season and the Huskies are 6-0 ATS as the visitor after they failed to cover the spread. The Red Raiders are tough to gauge, but 6-0 ATS record after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games has to be given some credence.
StatFox Power Line – Washington by 2
USC at Texas 9:00ET, ESPN2
Another matchup for the series between the Big-12 and Pac-10 has the Trojans visiting Austin, TX. Southern Cal (2-2, 1-2 ATS) was a program on the rise just 12 months ago; however three of their top players declared for the NBA Draft and then coach Tim Floyd was embroiled in the middle of a scandal, which forced his resignation. All previous top level recruits begged out of wearing the burgundy and yellow and new coach Kevin O’Neill took over, not known as Mr. Warmth. USC’s depleted roster took another hit recently when Kasey Cunningham went down for the season with knee injury, leaving the Trojans with five passable D-1 players. They are 5-16 ATS in road games after they made 50 percent of their three-point shots or more (5-for-9) since 1997.
Coach Rick Barnes has enough depth on his roster in which he could loan USC a few players and not miss a beat if this was a scrimmage. Texas (5-0 SU & ATS) can sleep walk to 70 points with established star like Damion James and emerging big man Dexter Pittman. Players like Gary Johnson, Justin Mason and Dogus Balbay, who started heavy minutes last season, are not on the court as often and fighting daily in practice with newcomers who are as talented or better. Texas can turn up the defensive pressure and they are 40-22 ATS when they allow 61 to 66 points.
Texas is a 20.5-point favorite and is 8-1 ATS after two straight wins by 15 points or more. USC will try and hang in and is 11-3 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last three seasons.
StatFox Power Line – Texas by 14
CFB: Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (8:00 PM ET, ABC)
2009-11-13
ABC has a dandy of a game on tap for Saturday night, but what’s strange about it is that Notre Dame is the so-called feature attraction against a Pittsburgh team that has its eye on the Big East title. Apparently there are still non-believers in the Panthers, and we will find out for sure how good they really are in the next few weeks. Pittsburgh is a 6.5-point home favorite for players at Sportsbook.com. Early returns see 65% of betting action headed in that direction.
Notre Dame saw its BCS bowl aspirations drown in an upset loss to Navy, 23-21. What looked like a 10-2 season, could easily turn into 7-5, starting with Pittsburgh next. The not always Fighting Irish (6-3, 2-7 ATS) welcomed back receiver Michael Floyd last week, giving quarterback Jimmy Clausen his full complement of weapons, like he had in the first 2 ½ games of the season. With Golden Tate having an All-American season, the offense will be as dangerous as it has been in awhile. The offensive line will be tested against top quality Pittsburgh defensive front that is among the top 10 in the country. Notre Dame’s defense is always a concern and they will have to play above proven ability to stop one of the balanced attacks in the country. The Irish are 2-11 ATS in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in previous game.
Once beaten Pittsburgh (8-1, 6-2 ATS) scheduled wisely for this brawl. The Panthers have yet to lose in the Big East and have closing games with West Virginia and Cincinnati to determine who wins the conference and the BCS berth. However, they can give Notre Dame their full attention with a bye next week. Arguably the most improved quarterback in the country is Bill Stull, who’s blossomed under new offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. A more harmonious offense line has kept Stull’s jersey clean and freshman RB Dion Lewis has made a big splash, as the nation’s first 1,000 yard rusher. Pitt stopped Syracuse 37-10 last week and is 16-5 ATS in home games off a win against Big East rival.
The Panthers are just 3-9 ATS versus Notre Dame including 1-4 ATS at home. The visitor has won and covered four in a row.
StatFox Steve has an opinion on this game in the Platinum Sheet: This is one of the first times this season where I believe Notre Dame is being undersold. Granted, Pittsburgh is playing very well, but I believe that this line is more reflective on what happened last week than anything. Had this game been played prior to Pitt’s rout of Syracuse and Notre Dame’s loss to Navy, I think we’d be looking at a line of about 3-1/2 points. This system reflects more on what could be a one-week overreaction: Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NOTRE DAME) - off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite, after the first month of the season. (35-12 since 1992.) (74.5%, +21.8 units. Rating = 2*). The Irish still can score points behind one of the nation’s best QB’s, and they have shown a gritty ability to come back regardless of the score or circumstances. I don’t think Pitt has enough punch to put this team away fully. Play: Notre Dame +6.5
Get more on this contest on the GAME MATCHUPS page at Sportsbook.com.
Texas (-12, 50) at Missouri 8:00E ABC/GP
2009-10-23
After deposing of Oklahoma 16-13, the Texas Longhorns (6-0, 1-4-1 ATS) are uncanny 12-0 SU in next game and have covered the spread in nine of last 10. This is the first of two prickly road games for Texas, moving on to Oklahoma State next. Coach Mack Brown is still seeking receiver to compliment wide receiver Jordan Shipley. The running game hasn’t been all that productive against better competition (107.6 YPG).
Because of injuries, inexperience and ineffectiveness of the offensive line, Colt McCoy has been forced to run similar to last season. The Horns defense has shut the door to prevent opponents from starting fast or locked them down after they owned brief lead. They rank 5th in the country in total defense and have forced 19 turnovers this season.
Sporting a 0-2 record in the Big 12, Missouri coach Gary Pinkel is being scrutinized in the blogging community for not changing his run offense, which is 10th in the Big 12. “We want to run the football better,” Pinkel said. “But we’re not going to change how we run the ball.” Most complaints have been about the lack of quick hitting plays and miniscule 3.8 yards per carry. The defense will have to rise to the challenge again and try and corral a quality colt in Mr. McCoy. Missouri (4-2, 3-3 ATS) is just 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58 percent or better.
Since 1916, Missouri is 1-14 vs. Texas with 5-6 ATS mark. The Longhorns are 11-3-1 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up wins, but 6-18 ATS on the road after five or more consecutive victories.
With the Longhorns a good-sized road favorite, the StatFox Outplay Factor backs Texas to cover at Sportsbook.com.
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